FORECASTING OF APPLE PRODUCTION IN INDIA USING ARIMA MODEL

Abstract

Apples are the most regularly cultivated temperate fruit in India, and fifth most often cultivated worldwide after bananas, oranges, and grapes. Only in the “northwestern Himalayan states of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand” is the apple grown commercially in India. In these states, horticulture is the primary source of income. Year-wise good apples with high yield are not only profitable for the farmers but also for the government in farm planning and making strategic decisions regarding marketing and storage. Therefore, prediction beforehand is crucial. The purpose of the study is to forecast apple production in India using the ARIMA (p,d,q) model. For this purpose, the time series data (2001-2002 to 2021-2022) on apple production from National Horticulture Board, Government of India was taken into account. According to the data, the Arima (2,1.0) model is the most accurate tool for predicting India’s apple output. The best fitting model is validated by a visual comparison of actual and predicted apple output.

Keywords: Forecasting; Apple production; ARIMA Model; National Horticulture Board