SECURITY DILEMMAS AND ALLIANCES IN A SHIFTING GLOBAL ORDER: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF GREAT POWER RESPONSES TO RISING MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Abstract

This article is a systematic literature review guided by PRISMA on the reaction of the traditional great powers on growing military power in a changing international system, focusing specifically on the security issues and alliances as a consequence. In the case of peer-reviewed articles published in 1990-2024, databases Scopus, Web of Science, and JSTOR were viewed as exhaustively as possible. Strict inclusion and exclusion criteria were then applied to documents and an inductive-deductive approach of coding was implemented. The synthesis produced is grouped into seven thematic clusters these consist RussiaNATO dynamics, chinas expansion in IndoPacific, the structure of alliances that existed in the Cold War, post milennium alliances, historical myths, nuclear deterrent, and emerging technologies. The three strategic patterns; balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging patterns exist throughout and regularly within the data; however, more widespread in the current responses can be observed to be a combination of these practice into hybrid responses that integrate moral signalling, deterrence, and institutional participation. The position of realist explanations is not vanishing yet, but rather liberal institutionalist and constructivist approaches are remaining ever more popular, especially in explaining the persistence of alliances and identity responses. The cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic technologies provide more intricate conventional deterrence logic and alliance guarantees because of the clarity of decisions and the reduced decision-making timelines. The contribution that the review makes is a hybrid framework which is integrative but explicitly shows how technological innovation transforms every connection between the perceived threats, strategic tools and results. There is a research agenda that is a priority and which covers technology, middle-power hedging and institutional fragmentation which is presented in the conclusion together with policy implications of crisis management.