PROXY WARS AND PERIPHERAL BATTLEFIELDS: THE ISRAEL–IRAN CONFLICT AND EMERGING SECURITY RISKS IN AFRICA

Abstract

The Israel–Iran conflict has escalated recently, with Israeli airstrikes and Iranian reprisals increasing the risk of broader regional confrontation. Although centred in the Middle East, the conflict’s repercussions are increasingly visible across parts of Africa. Using a qualitative, document-based case study approach, this article examines the emerging security risks facing African states. It analyses how proxy warfare dynamics, ideological spillovers, and transnational militant linkages, including Iran’s renewed engagement in Sudan, maritime insecurity in the Red Sea, and Israel’s expanding diplomatic and security ties in East Africa, may draw segments of the continent into the conflict’s periphery. The study argues that Middle Eastern rivalries can shape militant alignments and security calculations within Africa, particularly in areas where governance fragility creates opportunities for external influence. It concludes by calling for a more anticipatory African policy response grounded in geopolitical awareness and institutional resilience to mitigate the risks of entanglement in external power competition.